Couple of thoughts, just as a reminder these are my opinions, observations, and whatnot ymmv
Xious - 08 May 2011 11:15 PM
I think it comes down to (a) very crowded competitive market, (b) changing demographics of RPG players and GMs, (c) momentum.
(a) If you are going to pick up a new system, there are a lot of them out there. In addition to the ones which have been around for a while (D&D, Rifts/Palladium, Deadlands, Traveller, White Wolf, Star Wars, ...) there are a host of interesting new systems (Eclipse Phase, WarHammer, Lord of the Rings, Song of Ice and Fire, the list goes on forever - there really are a TON of great systems out there).
Yes, there are a lot of PnP out there which is why you have to push your product as much as possible.
Xious - 08 May 2011 11:15 PM
(b) Regarding changing demographics: I kind of made that up. I suspect that “kids these days” are into a different kind of experience, or come at role playing from a different angle than some of us did when we first started. For example, there are a lot of systems which are based on a “brand” adapted for role-playing. Also, the market dominance of Wizard of the Coast has probably created a shift in the marketplace some how (D&D has always been the biggest, but now their reach feel greater than ever, and their outreach program to non-RPGers and first-time players seems particularly effective). Think about it this way: in 1995 if a group of kids had never tried an RPG, they might try D&D first, but if the “GM” of the group didn’t like fantasy they might just as likely start on any other system. Today, I think a lot of players see D&D first and try something else second, even if fantasy isn’t their preferred genre.
(c) If you want to play an RPG (any RPG), there is momentum to play a game you already know. It takes some time to learn a new system, and only a fraction of the players out there like reading rules (the other half like playing but don’t like learning new rules). A different kind of momentum is the momentum in the rate of adoption, caused by word of mouth and viral adoption of the game.
I think you’ll find that the D&D brand whether Pathfinder or 4e is not as widespread as people think it is. There has been a decided exodus from PnP, but it has to do with a couple factors the proliferation of computer games and the complexity/buy in of PnP. Way back in the mid 80s, when I first started compared to now, the rules have gotten so complex or you have so many options the casual gamer is intimidated by it. I am having a hard time trying to get people to play AO, because most fear having to learn another rule system. I’m a hardcore gamer, but I look back at what I tried from 1984-2000 compared to 2000-2011 and it isn’t even close, just off the top of my head 1984-2000(DnD[1e&2e;], Palladium[Rifts,Fantasy, Nightbane, Heroes Unlimited] Traveller, Twilight 2000, WEG Star Wars, Marvel, Earthdawn, Cyberpunk, Shadowrun[1e,2e] Runequest, Gurps, Champions, Merps, Rolemaster, Taslantia, Vampire&Werewolf;&Mage;, Boothill, Ars Magica, Amber, Fading Suns, Deadlands, L5R.
Compare that to 200-2011 D&D[3e ,3.5e, pathfinder, 4e], Earthdawn, Shawdowrun, My Life With Master, Dogs in the Vineyard, Yusagi Yojimbo, and hopefully AO.
Most of the ‘big name’ games have gotten so complex that it is hard for me to get people to try another system. They don’t want to go through and learn or at least look at the 7,000powers/3,000feats that 4e has or the 1,200 spells that Pathfinder has. Why do that when they already did it for those systems.
That’s tied right into why computer games have become so popular. Besides the I can play when I want, the rules are ‘behind the screen’ so the speak. I have seen, in the last decade, more casual gaming friends stop playing and go to computer games then I have had hardcore gamers come into the hobby.
Xious - 08 May 2011 11:15 PM
Don’t lose heart though - just because the rate of officially published material is low doesn’t mean the system is in decline. I think a lot of groups find success with Alpha Omega and keep playing it with a lot of home grown material (which has its strengths, to be sure).
The game will be alive as long as people continue to play it.
MSL will stay in business as long as they keep costs low.
(I am not an expert, these are just my guesses and opinions).
/eh
Well there is the problems though. I give credit to MSL for not being like some other small companies (Living Room Games or Redbrick who decided it would be a great idea to not only be a small company who have day jobs and do this as well, but be a small company who has day jobs and decided taking on multiple game(s) systems was a great idea.)
There is a difference between published material and using homebrew material instead and having to make homebrew material because there is no published material. Like a map, a question posed a while ago, it is an awesome thing to have(a must imo), but we have none.